I know this isn't an outdoorsy article, but it is something that could ultimately affect our safety, so I thought it was worth talking about.
In light of the news that PC Harper’s killers will not be released early and that the government has amended the Sentencing Act 2026, this has led to calls for further changes to the new Act.
And I think this raises a much bigger question.
Why are our prisons nearly at maximum capacity in the first place?
Because whether we like it or not, we have reached a point where something has to change.
The prison population in England and Wales is now approaching 86,000, while there are fewer than 82,000 prison places considered safe and decent. And official projections suggest the prison population could pass 100,000 within the next few years.
So how did we get here? Well, there isn't one simple answer.
Over the years, sentences have generally become longer. More people are being sent to prison, and more prisoners are being recalled to custody when they breach the conditions of their release. At the same time, the prison population has continued to grow faster than the prison estate.
And then there is another problem. We quite rightly expect people who commit serious crimes to be punished. If somebody commits murder, rape, serious violence, or another grave offence, most people would expect a substantial prison sentence.
But not every person who enters prison presents the same level of danger to the public. That is where I think we need to have a sensible conversation.
Prison should be for those who really need to be there
One possible solution is to look very carefully at who we actually send to prison. There are offenders who are dangerous and need to be kept away from society. But there are also people who have committed less serious offences who might be better dealt with through community sentences, rehabilitation programmes, unpaid work, electronic monitoring, or other forms of punishment.
That doesn't mean letting people off.
A community sentence can still be demanding, restrictive, and punitive.
The question should be whether putting somebody behind bars is actually the most effective way of protecting the public and reducing the chances of them committing another offence.
What about short prison sentences?
Short prison sentences are another area worth looking at. If somebody is sentenced to a few months in prison, there may be very little time to do anything meaningful with them. They enter prison, go through the system, and before you know it, they are released again. If the objective is rehabilitation, that isn't necessarily very effective.
There is an argument for replacing some short custodial sentences with properly supervised community sentences, combined with rehabilitation, drug and alcohol treatment where appropriate, and strict monitoring.
The punishment would still exist, but the prison place could be used for someone who genuinely needs to be behind bars.
What about foreign prisoners?
Another option is dealing with foreign nationals who are serving prison sentences in Britain. Where the law allows it, some foreign offenders could be repatriated to serve their sentences in their country of origin. The government is already looking at this as one way of creating additional prison capacity.
But again, this isn't going to solve the entire problem. It can create some additional space, but it doesn't deal with the underlying reason why the prison population keeps increasing.
Build more prisons
Of course, the obvious answer is to build more prisons. And there is nothing wrong with doing that. If we need more prison places, then we should build them. The government has announced additional investment and plans to increase capacity, including bringing forward thousands of extra places. But building prisons takes time and costs an enormous amount of money.
And there is another danger. If we simply keep building more prisons without tackling why the prison population is increasing, we could find ourselves having the same conversation again in ten or twenty years. More prisons alone aren't the answer.
What about prisoners serving indefinite sentences?
There is also the complicated issue of prisoners serving Imprisonment for Public Protection sentences, or IPP sentences. These sentences were abolished for new cases years ago, but some people sentenced under the old system remain caught up in it. The government has said it wants to address the remaining IPP population, although releasing people who may still pose a risk has to be handled very carefully. This is an area where rehabilitation, risk assessment, and proper supervision are absolutely crucial.
And then we come back to early release
This is where the argument becomes particularly difficult.
Early release schemes are not new.
They have been used because the prison system simply hasn't had enough space. But when people hear that somebody convicted of a serious crime could be released earlier than the sentence they expected, understandably, there is public anger. The case of PC Andrew Harper has brought that issue into sharp focus. The government's latest changes mean that his killers, who were convicted of manslaughter, will not benefit from the early release arrangements. The changes also exclude other serious categories of offenders. And I can understand why. If somebody has committed a particularly serious offence, the public needs to have confidence that the punishment handed down by the courts actually means something.
But there is a problem. Every time we remove another category of prisoner from early release, we put further pressure on an already overcrowded prison system. That means the government has to find the space somewhere else. And that is why I don't think this debate can simply be about whether prisoners should be released early. It has to be about the whole prison system.
So what is the answer?
Personally, I think we need a combination of measures.
Keep dangerous offenders in prison for as long as the courts and risk assessments determine is necessary.
Build additional prison capacity.
Speed up the transfer of eligible foreign prisoners to their countries of origin.
Deal properly with the remaining IPP cases.
Reduce the unnecessary use of very short prison sentences where a tough community sentence would be more effective.
Improve rehabilitation inside prisons so that people leaving prison are less likely to return.
And perhaps most importantly, make sure probation actually has the resources to supervise people when they are released.
Because there is little point in putting somebody through a rehabilitation programme in prison and then releasing them into the community with inadequate support and supervision.
We need to stop treating this as an either-or argument
I don't think we have to choose between being tough on crime and trying to reduce prison overcrowding.
We can do both.
People who are dangerous should be kept away from the public.
Victims should come first.
Serious crimes should receive serious punishments.
But prison should not automatically be the answer to every offence.
We need a system that distinguishes between the person who genuinely needs to be locked away from society and the person who can be punished, rehabilitated, and monitored safely in the community. Because if we don't deal with the underlying problem, we will simply continue going round in circles.
More prisoners.
More overcrowding.
More pressure for early release.
More public anger.
Then, another emergency measure to create space.
And eventually, we'll be having exactly the same conversation all over again.
The real challenge for government is therefore not simply finding more prison cells.
It's deciding what prison is actually for, who really needs to be there, and how we make sure that when somebody does leave prison, they are less likely to come back. Because ultimately, the success of a prison system shouldn't simply be measured by how many people we manage to lock up. It should be measured by how effectively we protect the public, punish those who deserve punishment, rehabilitate those who can be rehabilitated, and prevent people from becoming victims of crime in the first place.
