There has been a lot of discussion recently about the criminal early release programme, but I think many ordinary people are still asking the same basic question. What exactly is going on, and what does it mean for the future of our justice system?
For me, this is not about being soft hearted or hard hearted. It is about a very simple principle. If somebody commits a serious crime, is found guilty and is sentenced by a court, that sentence should mean something.
Over recent years we have seen changes to the point at which some prisoners can be released. The most widely discussed example was the move to release some eligible prisoners after serving 40 percent of their custodial sentence rather than 50 percent. This was introduced largely because our prisons were running out of space.
I understand the practical problem. If there are not enough prison places, something has to be done. But I find it difficult to accept that prison capacity should ultimately determine how much of a sentence someone actually serves.
Imagine being the victim of a serious crime. You go through the trauma of what happened, the investigation, the court process and eventually the offender is convicted and sentenced to five years in prison.
You might reasonably think that means five years in prison.
Then you discover that the person could potentially be released much earlier and spend the remainder of their sentence living in the community under licence.
Legally, the sentence has not necessarily been reduced. But from the perspective of the victim, it can certainly feel that way.
And this is where I think we need to have an honest conversation.
What is the purpose of a prison sentence?
Surely it is partly about punishment. It is also about protecting the public, deterring people from committing crime and, where possible, rehabilitating offenders so that they do not go on to offend again.
I accept that rehabilitation matters. I also accept that simply locking somebody away for longer does not automatically make them a better person. If someone comes out of prison with no support, no accommodation, no employment prospects and no willingness to change, they may simply go on to commit another offence.
But there is another side to this argument.
If we continually soften sentences and reduce the amount of time people actually spend in prison, what message does that send?
If somebody is considering committing a crime and believes that even a serious offence will result in relatively little time behind bars, surely there is a danger that the deterrent effect of imprisonment is weakened.
I am not suggesting that everyone sits down and calculates the exact percentage of a sentence they might serve before committing a crime. Most people do not think like that.
But criminals are not completely unaware of the consequences of their actions either.
There is a difference between saying that prison should be used for every offence and saying that serious offences should carry serious consequences.
We also need to think about victims.
Too often, the debate seems to concentrate on the prisoner's rights, rehabilitation and circumstances while the victim becomes almost an afterthought.
What about the person whose life has been permanently changed by the crime?
What about their family?
What about the fear, trauma and financial consequences that can continue long after the offender has been released?
There has to be a balance, but that balance should not leave victims feeling that justice has been compromised simply because the prison system does not have enough space.
And that brings me to what I believe is the biggest question of all.
Should the Government be able to change the practical meaning of a sentence because there are not enough prison places?
If a court decides that someone deserves five years for a particular offence, shouldn't the Government have ensured that the prison capacity exists to enforce that sentence?
I appreciate that this is not as simple as building more prisons. Prisons cost money. Staff have to be recruited and trained. Prisoners need healthcare, education and rehabilitation. The whole system has to function properly.
But surely that is what government is supposed to plan for.
We know that people will commit crimes. We know that courts will send people to prison. We know that prisoners will eventually need to be released. None of this should come as a surprise.
So rather than continually changing release rules whenever the prison estate becomes overcrowded, perhaps we need to step back and ask what sort of justice system we actually want.
A system where sentences have a clear and understandable meaning.
A system where victims know that the punishment handed down by a court will be taken seriously.
A system where prisoners are given genuine opportunities to rehabilitate themselves.
And a system where public safety comes before political convenience.
I also think we need to be careful about suggesting that every early release automatically causes more crime. The evidence is more complicated than that. Good supervision, rehabilitation and proper support after release can make a genuine difference to whether someone reoffends.
But that does not mean we should ignore the deterrent effect of punishment.
There has to be a point where society says enough is enough.
If you commit a serious crime, you are responsible for the consequences.
If you are convicted, the sentence imposed by the court should carry real weight.
And if the public is told that someone has been sentenced to five years in prison, people should not need a law degree to understand that it might actually mean considerably less time behind bars.
Justice needs to be understandable.
It needs to be credible.
And above all, it needs to give victims and the wider public confidence that the criminal justice system is actually working on their behalf.
Because if people lose faith in the idea that crime leads to meaningful consequences, we should not be surprised when they begin asking what the point of the law is in the first place.
Punishment should not be about revenge.
It should be about justice, protection, deterrence and rehabilitation.
But justice also needs consequences.
And if we continue down a road where sentences are repeatedly shortened because the system cannot cope with the number of people being sent to prison, I think we need to ask a very uncomfortable question.
Are we actually reforming the justice system, or are we simply making the consequences of crime easier for the system to manage?